HARRISBURG — This spring, Pennsylvanians will vote in primary elections that will have huge ramifications for the way the state House and Senate look next year.
That’s why Spotlight PA analyzed all 228 legislative primaries — many of which are uncontested — on the May 19 ballot to pinpoint which are the likeliest to be competitive, impactful, or otherwise worth watching.
The general election in November is the ultimate decider of which party controls each legislative chamber. But as the number of competitive districts shrinks in Pennsylvania’s General Assembly, a primary may be the only serious election a candidate faces before winning public office. The attitude and ideology of primary winners can shape what issues the legislature approaches — from skill games to public transit — and how the body addresses them.
In Pennsylvania, primaries are open only to registered members of the political party, meaning a fraction of a district's voters can decide the outcome. Each major party’s leaders may also work to avoid contested primaries, to save energy and money for November. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, for instance, described his distaste for primaries in his memoir, noting a past one that “just sucked, as it always does when you are fighting with your own people and party.”
But primaries are also powerful, providing a chance for a party’s voters (and well-heeled interest groups) to review the records of sitting elected officials or newcomers seeking office. They are also hard to predict, as each race is unique to its district and candidates.
“Without a D or an R next to a candidate’s name the biggest cue voters use to make their choices is gone, making the choice about some other factors that are less clear,” said Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College, in an email to Spotlight PA.
“Incumbency, name recognition, policy positions and individual identities like gender, race and age are all elevated in importance in primaries and how voters prioritize these factors becomes key,” he added.
State Rep. Bryan Cutler (R., Lancaster), a former House Speaker who took office by primarying an incumbent, added that “the general idea of facing the electorate, in a primary and general, is what our commonwealth is built on.”
As leader, he oversaw the passage of the state’s mail voting law, the legislative response to COVID-19, and several budget deals. Those compromises helped inspire two unsuccessful primary challenges against him, Cutler said. But the job of state representatives, he argued, “is to govern, not get reelected.”
Read on for more detail about Spotlight PA’s rundown of primaries worth monitoring. The list is based on data from past elections and conversations with more than a dozen sources in both major parties, who requested anonymity to candidly discuss races.
Exclusion from this list does not mean a primary race isn’t important or won’t be close. As circumstances evolve and Spotlight PA becomes aware of new information, races may be added. Candidate slates are up to date as of noon March 27, though some ballot challenges are ongoing.
Primaries against sitting state lawmakers
Serious primary challenges to incumbents often elicit a mix of frustration and dread in Harrisburg. Victories against sitting officials can embolden interest groups and make lawmakers think twice before making deals on tough issues. A primary loss for an established legislator can also help competitive seats flip from one party to another in the general election.
These dynamics are prominent in the primaries against Republican state Sens. Camera Bartolotta and Chris Gebhard, both of which are expected to include conflict over skill games, one of Harrisburg’s thorniest issues.
Skill games are slot-like machines common in bars and convenience stores that exist in a legal gray area. Gebhard of Lebanon County sponsored a bill that skill games supporters oppose, while Washington County’s Bartolotta has been a vocal critic of the industry. The two incumbents have been previously attacked by a political group funded by the conservative organization Citizens Alliance of Pennsylvania.
Citizens Alliance has in turn received funding from skill games developer and distributor Pace-O-Matic. Citizens Alliance has previously backed successful conservative primary campaigns against incumbents.
Capitol insiders expect Pace-O-Matic and Citizens Alliance to be active in this year’s Senate GOP primaries, although neither group answered Spotlight PA’s questions about their efforts or relationship with each other, and there have not yet been enough campaign finance disclosures to assess their spending in the primary.
Both challengers in these races have sought to communicate strong conservative bona fides. Gebhard’s opponent, professional cowboy Clovis Crane, calls himself “THE Conservative Republican for District 48” on his campaign website. Bartolotta’s, masonry firm owner Albert Buchtan, boasts a “conservative platform and principles” and decries career politicians.
Still, Senate Republicans say they are “confident that Republican primary voters will see through the lies and false narratives.”
“Special interest groups will spend big money and create false narratives for one reason only, their own interest, and Pace-O-Matic and Citizens Alliance are no different,” Senate Republican campaign committee spokesperson Michael Straw said in a statement to Spotlight PA.
Not every primary centers on ideology.
Judy Trombetta, a Haverford Township commissioner and former legislative staffer, is challenging state Rep. Greg Vitali (D., Delaware), a 33-year incumbent and vocal champion of environmental issues.
Trombetta told Spotlight PA she doesn’t differ much from Vitali in terms of the issues. However, she thinks she can bring energy and a fresh perspective to the office. For instance, she argued Vitali should have been more active during last session’s inconclusive public transit funding debate.
“A good legislator can tackle multiple issues and know the timing is right based upon relationships and conversations,” she said.
Below are some of the primaries involving state House and Senate incumbents that may be competitive or are otherwise worth watching:
State Senate
Democratic: 18th District (Northampton) — Sen. Lisa Boscola vs. former Easton Council Member Taiba Sultana
Republican: 20th District (Luzerne, Wyoming, Susquehanna, Wayne, and Pike) — Sen. Lisa Baker vs. behavioral health specialist and army veteran Tyler Meyers
Democratic: 22nd District (Lackawanna and Luzerne) — Sen. Marty Flynn vs. therapist Jeffrey Lake
Democratic: 42nd District (Allegheny) — Sen. Wayne Fontana vs. software engineer Paul Steenkiste
Republican: 46th District (Beaver, Greene, and Washington) — Sen. Camera Bartolotta vs. Former Carmichaels School Board member and masonry firm owner Albert Buchtan
Republican: 48th District (Lebanon, Lancaster, and Berks) — Sen. Chris Gebhard vs professional cowboy and horse breeder Clovis Crane
State House
Democratic: 22nd District (Lehigh) — Rep. Ana Tiburcio vs. Allentown Council Member Ce-Ce Gerlach
Republican: 91st District (Adams) — Rep. Dan Moul vs. Conewago Valley School Director Lindsay Krug vs. Littlestown Area School Board President Nickolas Lovell
Republican: 117th District (Luzerne) — Rep. Jamie Walsh vs. former PNC Bank VP and local nonprofit chief Bill Jones
Democratic: 159th District (Delaware) — Rep. Carol Kazeem vs. former state Rep. Brian Kirkland
Democratic: 166th House District (Delaware) — Rep. Greg Vitali vs. Haverford Township Commissioner and former legislative staffer Judy Trombetta
Democratic: 195th House District (Philadelphia) — Rep. Keith Harris vs. social worker Sierra McNeil vs. pastor and former mayor’s office administrator Kenneth Walker
Primaries in districts with competitive general elections
The winners in these seats will carry their party’s standard for the November election in key swing districts that will decide who controls the General Assembly next year.
But the high-profile nature of those general election races also makes party leaders reluctant to go through with bruising primaries in these districts, as they’ll need all the resources they can muster for November.
"The last thing in my view that we need is a primary," state Sen. Steve Santarsiero, who also chairs the Bucks County Democrats, said at the January meeting to decide on a preferred candidate in the 16th Senate District, according to PhillyBurbs.com. Democrats aim to flip the upper chamber for the first time since the ‘90s, making this a key race.
However, the party couldn’t agree, and two candidates are competing for the Democratic nomination.
Republicans face a similar situation in the 36th Senate District in northern Lancaster County, which flipped from Republican to Democratic control in a 2025 special election upset. The GOP has blamed its candidate in that race for the loss, and party leaders are gunning to take the seat back to help preserve their majority.
The local party endorsed conservative state Rep. Tom Jones, who called for unity at the time. But others have said an outsider candidate may be a better option, according to LNP. Jones faces a local committee person for the nomination.
Below are some of the key primaries where the winning candidates will face a competitive general election that could help decide control of the General Assembly:
State Senate
Democratic: 16th District (Lehigh and Bucks) — Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley vs. middle school history teacher Bradley Merkl-Gump
Republican: 36th District (Lancaster) — Rep. Tom Jones vs. former Rapho Township Supervisor Jere Swarr
State House
Democratic: 45th District (Allegheny) — Allegheny County Council President Patrick Catena vs. tech worker Fred Coleman vs. attorney Brittany Bloam vs. paralegal Cameron Grosh
Republican: 88th District (Cumberland) — former lobbyist Savannah Beeler vs. attorney Jeff Clark
Democratic: 121st District (Luzerne) — Wilkes-Barre Councilperson Jessica McClay vs. paramedic Michael Stadulis
Primaries in districts that likely won’t have competitive general elections
The winners in these races probably won’t face formidable challenges in November, which means there’s a good chance they’ll be the people representing their districts in Harrisburg.
Because of that context, these primaries can provide some hints about the arguments motivating either party’s base, or which interest groups or factions are gaining power.
Take the 148th House District in the Philadelphia suburbs, where four Democrats are facing off. The candidates range from local officials with years of experience in government to a fresh college graduate whose campaign website promises to bring “energy, radical transparency, and above all, a necessary sense of urgency” to governing.
For Republicans, there’s rural Lancaster’s 100th House District, which Cutler is vacating after representing it since 2006.
The two GOP candidates, businessman Dave Nissley and retired State Trooper Kelly Osborne, promise conservative governance. However, Osborne, who serves on a local school board, promises “real conservative results,” while Nissley, who has never held elected office, promises “servant-based leadership.”
Below are some of the key primaries (all in the state House) in which the winner will likely face little competition:
Republican: 12th District (Butler) — business executive Ethan Nicholas vs. Air Force veteran and business owner Scott Timko
Republican: 98th District (Lancaster) — Elizabethtown School Board Member Danielle Lindemuth vs. Lancaster County Clerk of Courts Nicky Woods
Republican: 100th District (Lancaster) — Business owner and church deacon Dave Nissley vs. retired State Trooper and Lampeter-Strasburg School Board Member Kelly Osborne
Republican: 130th District (Berks) — former school superintendent Melissa Brewer vs. elementary school teacher Mitch Micale
Democratic: 148th District (Montgomery) — Narberth Mayor Andrea Deutsch vs. attorney and LGBTQ activist Jason Landau Goodman vs. legislative staffer Megan Griffin-Shelley vs. UPenn campus activist Leo Solga
Democratic: 200th District (Philadelphia) — School District of Philadelphia staffer Christopher Johnson vs. business owner Qasim Rashad vs. pastor and mental health counselor Deshawnda Williams