HARRISBURG — Democrats are declaring victory in a special election for an exurban Pittsburgh state House district that President Donald Trump won by almost 20 percentage points in 2024.
The Associated Press has not yet called the race. But as of 10 a.m. Wednesday, unofficial results show that Democrat Brandon Dukes, a TD Bank loan officer, is 88 votes ahead of Republican Scott Timko, a private aviation pilot and Air Force veteran.
The Butler County district primarily consists of Cranberry Township, a growing suburb of Pittsburgh, alongside Mars, Valencia, and Zelienople. The seat has been vacant since former state Rep. Stephenie Scialabba, a Republican, resigned in March.
It’s an area that has voted GOP reliably for decades. The district last elected a Democrat to the state House in the ‘90s; that lawmaker, Patricia Carone, later switched parties.
Republicans won statewide races by an average of more than 15 percentage points in the district between 2016 and 2022, per Dave’s Redistricting App. Donald Trump capped that with an 18-point margin in 2024, according to Department of State data.
Still, the district has remained on Democrats' wishlist due to its demographics. According to numbers crunched by Dave’s, a majority of the district’s voters have at least a bachelor's degree and most households make more than $100,000 a year.
“When you think of the stereotypical person who’s become more Democratic since Trump was elected, that is the district you think of,” said Will Allison, a Cranberry native and chair of the Allegheny County Young Democrats, who has also led canvasses of the district.
Democrats have held a one-vote majority in the state House since 2023. There have been 17 special elections to fill vacant state House seats during that time; this is the first flip.
Since special elections often occur on random Tuesdays, and are not always preceded by a wave of campaigning, turnout is frequently low. That means the results may not follow historical norms.
Still, Tuesday’s result is another data point in favor of Democrats, who’ve been overperforming in special elections nationwide in the lead-up to the midterm. Historically, the party that doesn’t hold the presidency also tends to do well in midterm elections.
Democrats also flipped a seat in the upper chamber earlier this legislative session, unexpectedly taking a state Senate seat in Lancaster in March 2025.
Dukes, 40, decided to run for state representative after losing a township supervisor race last year by a whisker.
“We've had the same representation here in the district in Harrisburg for the last 30-some years, and nothing is working,” Dukes told Spotlight PA earlier this month. “It's time to change course.”
On his campaign website, he previously pledged to rewrite the state’s election laws, including open primaries and in-person early voting, although he told Spotlight PA he wouldn’t expand the state’s voter ID requirements. (The section has since disappeared from his website, replaced by promises to expand state infrastructure spending.)
He also said he’d prioritize getting state funding to widen a road in the district, and support a pause on data center development for “however long it takes to make sure we get [regulations] right. This is something I don't want to rush.”
This was Timko’s third push for the seat. That includes an unsuccessful 2020 primary of former GOP state Rep. Daryl Metcalfe, who held it from 1999 to 2023.
At the time, Timko called Metcalfe — who hosted a white nationalist at a committee meeting and implied Democratic colleague Matt Bradford was gay for touching him on the arm — an “extremist,” adding: “I don’t think extremists serve their constituents.” Metcalfe retorted that Timko was a “clown.”
Timko did not respond to Spotlight PA’s requests for comment. His campaign website said he planned to be “tough on crime,” keep tax dollars “from being seized by big cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh,” and place additional restrictions on data center developers. He said in an online voter guide that so-called “elective abortion” should only be allowed “when a pregnancy will permanently harm or kill the mother” and that he supports eliminating the federal Department of Education.
Dukes will likely be sworn in sometime next month — but in short order, he’ll have to defend the seat again. He’ll face Timko once more in a general election rematch in November to decide who gets a full, two-year term next session.
Still, his vote will give Democratic leadership a small amount of wiggle room to pass deals through their ideologically diverse caucus.
The state House returns to Harrisburg in late September, with some weighty issues on its agenda like skill games, data centers, and second-degree murder sentencing.